Question first
Discovery begins with consequential, resolvable questions—not a feed of disconnected prices.
Foretell product paper · 02
A clearer way to read the future.
Prediction markets turn uncertainty into a number. Foretell is designed to make that number easier to find, inspect, and understand.
01 / The idea
Start with the question.
Most market interfaces begin with a venue, an asset, or a trade. Foretell begins with the thing a person actually wants to know: what is likely to happen next?
Prediction markets are useful because they compress many views into a probability. But probabilities are easy to overread. A number means little without the exact question, its time horizon, its source, its history, and the rules that determine the outcome.
Foretell brings those pieces together. The goal is not to remove uncertainty. It is to make uncertainty easier to compare, question, and revisit.
This matters because the information people use to form a view is scattered. News explains what has already happened. Research offers depth but moves slowly. Social feeds move quickly but mix evidence with attention. A well-formed market adds a different kind of signal: a continuously revised estimate attached to a defined event.
Foretell treats that estimate as a starting point rather than a conclusion. The product is designed to connect the number back to the world it describes.
A probability without context is just a number.
02 / Product principles
Context belongs inside the product.
Five principles shape every Foretell market view.
Context close
Source, timing, movement, and relevant background stay beside the probability.
Resolution visible
The conditions and named sources that settle an outcome remain easy to inspect.
Reality close
Coverage should reflect the economies, policies, industries, and events people actually follow.
User control
Identity and access should remain portable, optional, and separate from custody or financial permission.
03 / Coverage
Markets should track lived reality.
The questions people care about are not limited to one country, exchange, or news cycle. They sit where public events meet daily decisions.
Inflation, growth, rates, trade, employment, and the direction of major economies.
Elections, regulation, court decisions, public programs, and geopolitical commitments.
Adoption, infrastructure, supply chains, standards, and the pace of technical change.
Generation, capacity, transition milestones, extreme events, and environmental targets.
Media, sport, public behavior, and events that shape collective attention.
Foretell’s role is to organize these questions consistently while preserving the context that makes each one locally meaningful.
04 / A Foretell market
Six things should always be clear.
- 01
The question
One specific outcome, written without hiding the important conditions.
- 02
The probability
The current signal and enough history to understand how conviction is moving.
- 03
The time horizon
The exact date or period in which the outcome must occur.
- 04
The source
Where the signal comes from, when it was updated, and whether it is current.
- 05
The resolution
The rule and authoritative source used to determine the final result.
- 06
The market conditions
Available depth, spread, or other limitations that affect how confidently the number can be read.
05 / Resolution
Rules should be readable before they matter.
A market is only as trustworthy as the process used to determine its outcome.
Define the event
State the outcome, deadline, geography, units, and any material exceptions.
Name the source
Identify the publication, authority, filing, or dataset that will determine the result.
Expose ambiguity
Call out known edge cases instead of waiting for them to become disputes.
Record the outcome
Keep the final evidence and reasoning visible after the question closes.
06 / Data model
Keep the source attached to the signal.
Foretell is designed around a provider-neutral data model. A question can be understood independently of the venue or provider that supplies its probability.
Every external signal should retain its provider, original reference, timestamp, outcome labels, resolution rule, and freshness state. Any normalization performed by Foretell should remain distinguishable from the source record.
When information is delayed or unavailable, the interface should say so clearly. A missing signal is better than a falsely precise one.
SourceValidateNormalizeAttributePresent
07 / Identity & access
A wallet can be an identity—not a surrender of control.
Wallet access can give people a portable way to identify themselves across products. In Foretell, that role should remain narrow and understandable.
Connecting a wallet should prove control of an address. It should not give Foretell permission to move assets, request token approvals, or turn a reader into a trader. Email access can remain available for people who do not use a wallet.
Over time, portable identity may support preferences, watchlists, forecasting history, and contribution reputation. These capabilities should be introduced separately from any financial functionality so users can understand what they are authorizing.
- Minimal permissions
- No asset custody
- Clear signing requests
- Email remains an option
08 / Trust
Useful signals need visible limits.
A prediction-market price reflects current conviction. It does not make an outcome certain, and it should not be presented as if it does.
Foretell is designed to distinguish current, delayed, stale, and unavailable information; retain source attribution; and keep resolution rules close to the question they govern.
Market depth, participant concentration, source errors, disputed facts, and sudden events can all change how a probability should be interpreted. Foretell should make these limitations easier to see rather than allowing a clean percentage to imply more confidence than the underlying market supports.
09 / Product direction
Build the reading layer first.
Foretell is focused on making market signals easier to discover and interpret: organized questions, comparable probabilities, connected context, and resolution information people can actually read.
The product direction follows a simple sequence. First, make the reading experience reliable. Then add personal tools that help people return to the questions they care about. Finally, introduce structured ways for informed contributors to add context and improve coverage. Each layer should be useful on its own.
Find the questions that matter without starting from a particular venue.
See what stands behind a probability before deciding what it means.
Return as events change and watch conviction move with new information.